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Monday
Nov022009

« Shorts Beware: Nasdaq et al Showing Positive Divergences on Hourly »

Pardon me for the lack of blog postings for the past 4 or 5 days. I have gotten involved in a big side project at the last minute and between work on that project and the usual updates to the members area services, spare minutes have been in dearth. To add to matters, I'm in the process of moving house, as well! Anyway, things should be back to normal soon. With that admin note out of the way, let's get down to business.

It has been a good run for the bears. Our trading picks lists are chock full of big winners. But the "easy" part of the decline may be over for now. We're not quite ready to get bullish as yet, but we are on the lookout for a bounce, which we'd use to book profits on shorts and perhaps, once such a bounce has taken place, look to re-enter new shorts, before any next leg down.

This pause comes from a viewing of the daily chart, which shows prices at a flat lower bollinger band, and of the hourly chart, which as you see (below) is showing buy signals.

Nasdaq-100 Hourly Chart Showing Positive Divergence on MACD

NDX has reached support at 1660 as of this morning. So far, support has held up quite well. With RSI at an oversold reading and, more significantly, MACD showing a potential positive divergence, the odds are pretty goo that a bounce will take place. As far as the size of such a bounce, we'd be look at the 38%-62% Fib zone (1705-1732) of the recent down-leg, as our primary target area.

Note that the presumption of a bounce depends completely upon the continued legitimacy of support at 1660. If that level is broken, the downtrend could resume imminently.