« Rising Channel on S&P-500 Hourly Chart (Final Update) »

Despite a brief move back into the rising channel, mid-day on Wednesday, the S&P-500 has now clearly obliterated the rising channel that had been present on the chart since early-Oct. As such, we will have a new 'Chart In Focus' following this update.

S&P-500 hourly chart showing broken rising channel and negative centerline crossover on RSI

As you can see, the index was able to find support at around 1087 late on Tuesday and was able to climb back into the broken channel mi-day on Wednesday. In fact, given the channel lines had risen considerably, the index even moved to a marginally higher new high on the minor trend, at that point.

The index consolidated at those levels until the last hour of the day. The bulls got crushed in the last hour, however. No less than 20 points were lost in the final hour and, if the bears can keep up that sort of pressure for a while longer, we might soon find out there has been a change in the minor trend.

You'll notice that the move has brought about a few signals that will get the bears quite excited: a) This is the first new low on the index since the beginning of the rally in late-September. b) There is a negative centerline crossover on RSI. c) There is a confirmed negative divergence on MACD.

If the bears can add a negative 0-line crossover on MACD to that list, there should be a full fledged minor trend decline on the indices, over the coming sessions. Our first target would be in the 1040-1045 area (we've spoken more about this in the most recent 'Nightly Commentary' piece in the Members' Lounge.)