« Active Traders: 5-min SPY Chart Trends (8/07/08) »

(Click the entry title to view entire entry and any subsequent updates).

The ETF opened with a downward gap of around 1-pt, but quickly stabilized and has since filled half the gap. There are no discernable patterns on the 5-min chart, at the moment. One possible trade is a shorting of any break below 127.5-mark.

The upper bollinger band on the daily chart has risen over the past couple of days and that is a good sign for the bulls. If prices approch the highs, once again, the upper daily band will not be an impediment as it has in the recent past. It sits at 129.99 as of this morning and, as long as the minor trend remains bullish, that band will be a short-term target.

Update on Thursday, August 7, 2008 at 11:48AM by Asher Pinto

After a couple of hours of chopping around, there is finally a possible tradable pattern on the 5-min chart -.a potential bull wedge. If the pattern remains valid, a move to 129.40 is what it calls for.

Update on Thursday, August 7, 2008 at 12:04PM by Asher Pinto

The wedge pattern has morphed into a channel. A break of the upper line might be considered bullish; a move above the day's highs at 128.40 will be needed before getting aggressively bullish again. Any such move would bring about a measured bull move target of 129.40.

A break of the day's lows at ~127.50, on the other hand, brings about a target of 125.70 or thereabouts. That target from from a potential H&S pattern (left shoulder at Aug 5th highs, head at yesterday's highs, and right shoulder at today's highs so far). What's interesting about this prospect is that if it were to play out, we'd find the index at its 20dMA, once again.

Update on Thursday, August 7, 2008 at 12:42PM by Asher Pinto

Channel has been broken. If 128.40 can be taken out as well, we should see a filling of the gap today and even a possible march to the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart.

Update on Thursday, August 7, 2008 at 01:51PM by Asher Pinto

A small rectangle between 128.10 and 128.40 over the past hour.

Can this thing take out 128.40 and 128.50 again? If so, watch out above!

Update on Thursday, August 7, 2008 at 03:07PM by Asher Pinto

Finally, a break out of the consolidation pattern - and its to the downside.

For those of you who've been reading our recent Nightly Commentary pieces or the most recent Purely Technical newsletter, the apparent bearish turnaround should come as no surprise.

Comments

[BC Beasley]

Asher, Thx for the great charts! Made good $ today!

[Asher Pinto]

Hi Bease, It really was a great session, wasn't it? This volatility is great for short-term trading and PERFECT for options too.Cheers, Asher.